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This blog discusses Los Cabos real estate and other important news and happenings in Cabo.

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Lot / Land For Sale in Light House Point Estates

Southward Facing on the Beach in Front of House
Underground Utilities

• 2,000 sq. m. lot / land - $219,000 USD - Cheapest Beach Front Lot

 -  Own your very own beachfront lot in Cabo. Located in Lighthouse Point Estates this 1/2 acre lot has all services to it. There are homes already completed and many under construction. Located just 45 minutes from the San Jose International airport (SJD) this location is ideal for those that LOVE the EAST CAPE. Also, only 15 minutes from the famous Cabo Pulmo reef.

Enjoy this swimmable beach all year round and at this price know you have only one way for your investment to go and that's UP!

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Also, View Video on Youtube:  Click Here

What are Second Home Buyers doing in 2010?
According to a E360's 2nd Home Trend Report done this year 2010 of second home owners, 45% of the owners think it is the perfect time to buy another "second" home. The report has surveyed second home buyers based on the following criteria: timing, home characteristics, location, and price to buy a second home. The country that ranked the most favored of those surveyed was Mexico dominating more than 50% of those polled. 360’s Global Research Analyst, Chad Martin said “although only half of our respondents believe now is a good time to buy, it is impressive that there is a strong second home contingent looking at a market like Mexico.” Also, of the remaining percentage of people who weren't thinking now is the right time to purchase that second home a staggering 79% of them thought in the next 2 years they would purchase a second home. Pretty Impressive huh? You will also find interesting that the top 3 reasons why second home buyers are buying now are as follows: 1. Lifestyle and Leisure ranks in at number one at 46% of those polled 2. Investment reasons ranks in at number 2 at 41% 3. Retirement ranks in at 3rd at 11%. It's interesting because most people aren't thinking for retirement but more a lifestyle of commuting back and forth between home and their second home. This is why Los Cabos Real Estate has shown movement even in this down economy. For that matter all Mexico Real Estate. So what property characteristics are most sought after in a second home property? There probably isn't much surprised that those surveyed chose water views and proximity to the water along with mountain activities like mountain biking, hiking, atvs, horseback riding, and camping. It's amazing that you can buy houses in Cabo offering all of those things. Gaining recent growth and heightened interest are the need for spa and medical facilities. It was interesting that although Golf is important to many people it didn't rank as a top attribute for people seeking a second home. It might be that those loving to play Golf prefer to much rather have all other things and Golf would be just a nice plus. It is also interesting to note that still 49 percent of those polled will consider local or domestic areas for retirement but many want to consider those properties that are a little bit outside of the highly populated areas and more off the beaten path. It could be deduced that this same mentality is why many are considering international destinations for a second home because many countries especially in the Latin America are unchartered and less inhabited areas. In consideration of the size of home, 49% want to have a single family residence and 60% prefer a smaller 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom setup. The price range of consideration is 200k - 400k and 60% are cash buyers not in need for financing. This remains very consistent and logical given that the people with the ability to buy a second home typically have the extra cash saved and prefer to not encumber a property and headache about another monthly payment. After all, buying a second home is suppose to easier than owning a primary home and not having a mortgage is a step in the right direction.
Jim Cramer calls Mexican Real Estate a BUY!

This July 2010 article has caught a lot of attention and is drawing a large number of people to Mexico to buy real estate.  The location is ideal for Americans and Canadians alike.  For many there is no difference between a flight from Chicago to San Francisco than a flight from Chicago to Cabo San Lucas.  With several flights daily going between Canada/America and Mexico, accessibility is usually the least of issues for travelers. Also, the cost of living is so much less than most other North American cities with the benefits of a slower pace of life and beautiful weather all year round. 

Medical care is also advancing and addressing more and more of the needs of retirees here in Mexico.  With hospitals adapting American standards and a fully bilingual staff, hospitals like Amerimed are becoming increasingly more popular.  There are 2 such facilities in Los Cabos - one in Cabo San Lucas and another in San Jose del Cabo.  Many of people's medical insurance cover Amerimed bills too. Also, for a very inexpensive premium each year you can get Medivac insurance for those extreme medical emergencies that require you to head up to the States. 

So you have made the decision to buy your retirement home in Mexico, now what?  It is always wise to do your research on the internet and read a variety of blogs, websites, and discussion forums to hear the areas that are most popular.  One such valuable website on Los Cabos Real Estate is loscabosagent.com.  If Cabo is not your area of choice a simple google search of "______  Real Estate" will do the trick.  Fill in the blank with Puerta Vallarta, Cancun, Mayan Riviera, Lake Chapala, Rocky Point, etc.  

Generally speaking real estate in Mexico is cheaper and offers many more amenities that most properties back home don't offer.  For example, it is typical to have a community pool, 24/7 gated security, and fitness room.  The amenities and carefree ownership are important features to owning a home in Mexico.  Not to mention the fact that real estate taxes are typically only .1% of the value of the property paid each year.  This is usually about 1/10 the normal real estate taxes retirees would be paying for a similar property back home.  

To learn more about Jim Cramer's take on the Mexican Real Estate investment read below.  Just keep in mind that his last point of no real estate taxes is a little inaccurate.  I think he was figuring if you're paying .1% per year it pretty much is like paying nothing.  

 

Wednesday, July 28, 2010
CNBC’s Stock Market Guru Urges Investing in Mexico

Jim Cramer, the Bombastic, high-energy investment Guru and host of CNBC’s massively successful show “Mad Money”, gave Mexico real estate investment a big boost this week. Cramer told his audience:

“It’s not such a bad idea to diversify away from stocks, I think that out of favor real estate in Mexico, that’s easily accessible to Americans, represents a great buy”.

With as many as 2.5 million investors viewing the show each week, the controversial host wields quite a bit of influence among his viewership and in the marketplace as a whole. His following is so intense that it has created a unique phenomenon in the stock market known as the “Cramer Bounce”, which can be best described “as the sudden overnight appreciation of a stock’s price after it has been recommended by Jim Cramer on his CNBC show”, “Mad Money”.

Why does Cramer have such clout? Well, after graduating magna *** laude from Harvard College, his first year as a rookie broker with Goldman Sachs, he made over $700,000. After he paid his dues at Goldman, Cramer started his own $450 million hedge fund where he earned 24% after fees, regularly taking home over $10 million a year. Cramer’s fund finished in 2001, up 36%, compared to -11% for the S&P 500 average and walked away with $100 million and change.

Since then, he founded TheStreet.com and has written five New York Times best selling books and his articles are featured in Time and New York Magazines. He also a frequent guest on Meet the Press, Today Show, 60 Minutes, NBC’s Nightly News, The Tonight Show and most major financial networks.

Following his own advice, Cramer recently announced to his audience that he had already purchased three properties in Mexico within the last few weeks. When asked about hyped headlines about drug violence and turmoil in Mexico, Cramer downplayed those fears, he said, “Mexico is a big country and not every province, every state is involved in the drug trade”, and he added, “it has to be one of the nicest places I’ve ever been.”

When asked why he invested money in Mexico real estate, he replied, There is “no property tax,” the properties are “incredibly easy to maintain,” and there are “property managers everywhere.”  

6,000 Square Foot Home in Cabo San Lucas - Arch Views Only $695,000

Patio View of Bisbee start
Arch Views on 1/2 Acre

• 6,000 sq. ft., 6 bath, 6 bdrm single story - $695,000 USD - Asking $115 per sqft!

 -  This spectacular house has the best views in Cabo. Located on the Cabo Corridor and only 5 minutes from downtown Cabo San Lucas. It is ideally located.

It is a large 6,000 square foot home split into two 3,000 sqft units each featuring their own kitchen, 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, laundry room and very nice views. The options for this home that sits on 1/2 an acre are limitless. If you want to live in one unit and rent the other or live in one and keep the other for out of town guests and family.

The house is equipped with a pool and jacuzzi and outdoor terraces taking advantage of the Land's End/Arch Views. There is plenty of land to still build another home.

There are possibilities to even do a bed and breakfast so act now as this home is selling for a drastic price reduction and 50% less than what it was originally listed for.

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Shots - The Bar in CSL Central

CSL Central, Cabo San Lucas  -  Announcing a new listing Shots - The Bar, a 400 sq. ft., 1 bath single story. Now $129,900 - Real Estate and Bar.

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Price Reduced on Thirsty Fox Bar in Plaza Bonita

Plaza Bonita, CSL Central  -  Announcing a price reduction on Thirsty Fox Bar, a 1,500 sq. ft., 1 bath single story. Now $35,000 USD - Cost of Build out.

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Lot / Land For Sale in Los Cerritos

A sunbather's delight
Swimmable Beach

• 1,500 sq. m. lot / land - $359,000 USD - Cheapest Beachfront lot

 -  Own your very own beachfront parcel that measures over 1/3 of an acre. It spans 66 feet wide by 246 feet long. Just a few hundred meters from the Hacienda Cerritos which is a beautiful home turned into a boutique hotel. You can view that your future neighbor at www.haciendacerritos.com.

Off of one of the most coveted surfing and swimming beaches in all of Los Cabos. You can safely swim on this beach all year round. Also, located just 10 minutes from the historical town of Todos Santos and 45 minutes from downtown Cabo San Lucas. This lot is a true gem.

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Summer is in the Cabo Air

What does Summer mean in Cabo?

 

Many people just can’t wait to get out of the winter months and into the summer to finally start enjoying warm weather.  It’s a common thing heard in Cabo San Lucas everyday among visitors.  Another common thing heard is for real estate in Cabo San Lucas “have we hit bottom?”.  It appears that the bottom of the Cabo San Lucas real estate market is here or very near.  The exact timing is always hard no matter what market you are in but the one thing that is for sure is that it still is a buyer’s market.  It is a great time to start buying and even more so now in the summer months. 

 

Unlike in many markets in the U.S. and Canada the where the real estate markets trend up during the summer the exact opposite happens here in Cabo.  The main reason is that the majority of visitors are in Cabo San Lucas during the months between October and May.  It’s Cabo’s high season and the low season is the time period between June and September.  The exciting part to all of this is that not only is Cabo in a down market with lower real estate prices than ever but also there is the “seasonal effect” happening where sellers are more desperate to sell due to the slower Cabo real estate traffic. 

 

The timing right now and the next 3 months represent prime time for those ready, willing and able to buy.  This not only is a good time to purchase but a fantastic time to rent too.  There are many property managers reporting now that owners aren’t so willing now to let their Cabo Villas lay dormant and are now considering long term rentals instead of short term for that more consistent cash flow.   

 

So even though many try to stay home during the summer months and leave Cabo San Lucas for the winter and spring time there is definite good reason to come during the summer months not only for a cheaper vacation but also to be buying that dream villa that is at historically low prices.  

Shortage of Coffee Sticks in Cabo

Check out Jonathan Brilliant's fabulous coffee stick sculpture on display at the Shoppes of Palmilla until June 30th.  He used over 60,000 coffee stirrers to make this art display.  From May 2009-December 2010 he is executing his “Have Sticks Will Travel world Tour”. The tour is a marathon series of site-specific installations taking place in thirteen galleries in eighteen months, in three countries, on two continents. In September 2010 he will conclude the tour with a three month fellowship as an artist in Residence at The Mccoll Center in Charlotte North Carolina.   Click on the video below to see how he did it: 

Mexico in the News

First: A reality check on Mexico
Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy. In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role. The U.S. media – over the last year – has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kidnapped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break. The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.
Let’s look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State Clinton was clear in her honest assessment of the problem. “Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians,” Clinton said. The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A. that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This “business” is globally now competing with drugs in terms of profits.
It is critical to understand, however that the horrific violence in Mexico is over 95% confined to the three transshipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana, Nogales, and Juarez. The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns. There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez. He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A. and compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror capped off with The Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre. During these years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives and attended classes, went to the movies, restaurants, and parks.
Is there corruption in Mexico? YES !!! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A.? YES !!!. When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales you will find massive corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel; these “businessmen” are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers during Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analysis of their business much better than the US automobile industry. They have found over the years that the cost of bribing U.S. and Mexican Border Guards and the transportation costs of moving marijuana from Sinaloa to California have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years they have been growing marijuana in State and Federal Parks and BLM land all across America. From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels. Let’s look at California as an example as one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation and an overall reduction cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people. Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalties in California, on average are 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories.
FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City, among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities. With the exception of Mexico City, the number one city for kidnappings among NAFTA countries is Phoenix, Arizona with over 359 in 2008. The Phoenix Police estimate that twice that number of kidnappings goes unreported, because like Mexico 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human traffic . Phoenix, unfortunately, is geographically profitable transshipping location. Mexicans, just like 99% of U.S. Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work and live their lives untouched by the border town violence.
These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico and temporary devastated the tourism business. As of May 27 2009 there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months there have been 36 murdered school children in Chicago. By their logic, if 87 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrants canceling flights and cruise ships to Mexico, then close all roads and highways in the USA because of record 43,359 automobile related deaths in the USA in 2008.
What is just getting underway is what many are calling the “Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets since the Civil War” A significant percentage of the Baby Boomers have been doing the research and are making the life changing decision to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in the world is Mexico. There are already over 2,000,000 US and Canadian property owners in Mexico. The most conservative number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico for full or part time living in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000. Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R. 3056. The U.S. government calls this “The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007”. Those who will have to pay it are calling this the EXIT TAX.

Mexico: A better economic choice than China
Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high paying skilled jobs. The job shift in automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months as John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A., and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers . In the city of Zacatecas there is currently a $210 million aerospace facility being built. With the 11 U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide over 200,000 new high paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for the shift in job south to Mexico instead of China is realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, and quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial advantage.


Mexico’s real economic future
Mexico has avoided completely the subprime problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. The Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very healthy middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position of having over 90% of current homeowners owning their house outright. U.S. banks are competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross border loan business. It is and will continue to be a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner have learned their lesson and are loaning here the old fashioned way. They require a minimum of a 680 credit score, 30% down payment, and verifiable income that can support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving to, with the exception of Puerto Penasco (which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction. The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand in Cabo San Lucas, that price point, in the coming years, will disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government is spending billions of dollars on more infrastructure north along the coast all the way up to Mazatlan.
The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenues is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico’s GDP. The name for this “business” is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors for Mexico were Thailand and India. Thailand and India’s biggest drawback is geography. Also recent events, Thailand’s inability to keep a government in place and the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture close to half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.
Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus and an almost balanced budget. Most Americans have never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that it became clear to many investors around the world what Mexicans already knew: that Mexico had been able to avoid the worst of the U.S. economic devastation. Mexico’s resilience is to be admired. When the U.S. Federal Reserve granted a $30 billion loan to each of the following countries Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested the money in Treasury bonds in an account in New York City.
According to oil traders, Mexico’s Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel. Since the beginning of 2009 Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90-$110 per barrel today. Mexico’s recent and under reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec has placed it third in the world for oil reserves, right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.
The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on March 19, 2009. “The strength of the Mexican economic system makes the country a favorite destination for Canadian investment”.

 

   

 

 

 

Rentals in Cabo San Lucas - A Growing Trend

It is very typical these days that I get asked the question "What is going on in Cabo Real Estate in this market?" It's a valid question as we hear of all the despair, gloom and doom over much of the world it is something that Cabo isn't impervious to. Although Cabo is seeing signs of recovery it is a slow one. So as a result of the slower real estate (Buyer's) market, I am also seeing a trend towards people wanting to rent places first before buying. This is especially the case for those who haven't been to Cabo before or just that one time on a cruise ship last winter. In recognition of this growing market I wanted to share with you 3 rentals that I believe each offer their own special something. From a 3 bedroom condo to a studio you can get a long term rental from $900/month to $2150/month.

Here are 3 such examples and also I have another 100 plus rentals on my Cabo San Lucas Real Estate website. Click the links below to learn more about these rentals.

3 Bedroom - 5 min to CSL

San Jose Condo Cabo

Marina Studio

If you are beyond the rental market and ready to buy don't forget this great penthouse condo for just $299,000. Fantastic views and huge spaces.

Click below to learn more.

Penthouse Dream

For all those in the States, Happy Memorial Day! All the Best, Nick

Rent/Lease on Tamar #101 in Villas Tamar

Villas Tamar, El Tezal  -  Announcing a rent/lease reduction on Tamar #101, a 1,700 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm single story. Now $1,100 USD Monthly - Affordable New Rental.

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Happy Cinco de Mayo!

So you probably think this is a big day here in Cabo San Lucas, huh? It's Mexican Independence Day after-all right? Well the truth is that today really isn't that big of a deal. Cinco de Mayo is more of a misconception among foreigners as being a really big holiday here in Mexico. Cinco de Mayo also known as the day in celebration for the Battle of Puebla is mostly celebrated in the city of Puebla, Mexico. So what was Cinco de Mayo then? It was the day in the year 1862 when the Mexican army defeated the French army in an unlikely outcome. The Mexican stood 4000 strong while the French army outnumbered them by over double the number of men. Add to this the fact that the French army was a much better armed force and it was an incredible surprise to see the Mexican forces defeat France. France had invaded Mexico as a result of Mexico, under the rule of Benito Juarez, stopping payments to France for its foreign debt to them. The significance of Cinco de Mayo is more than the Battle of Puebla itself but an interesting factoid is that this was the last time one of the Americas was invaded by an army from another continent. So hopefully if you're here and maybe even checking out Cabo Real Estate or hanging out in your own private cabo villa tip back a tequila shot for CInco de Mayo but remember it wasn't Mexican's Independence. For all of you still waiting to get down here in Cabo see you here soon and maybe it will be on Mexico's actual day of Independence - September 15th!

Take Care! Nick

Is Cabo too Expensive?

It’s amazing how many people are retiring in Cabo from the States and Canada and with the decrease in real estate prices in Cabo there is a flurry of new buyers that were “sitting on the sidelines” the past few years as prices reached all time highs. Now a person can buy a 3 bedroom house for $250,000 USD and have views of the ocean and live in a place like Cabo where life is more tranquil and the cost of living is relatively cheaper than many people’s home towns.

With this being said, I wanted to show you an interesting study recently done in 2009 by the Mexican Bank (Banco de Mexico) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). They studied 42 areas in Mexico to determine the most expensive and least expensive areas to live. They took into account services and goods like health care, education, clothing, domestic items, transportation, food, equipment, etc.

The base line was the capital city of Mexico City and it was given a value of 100 points. Those cities that were more expensive to live in were above 100 points and those lower were under 100 points. So guess what city was the most expensive city to live in?

Cancun? Acapulco? The answer was surprising to me but the most expensive city to live in Mexico is Monterrey. It was given a score of 103.9 while coming in second was our very own Cabo San Lucas. It was given a score of 103 followed by Cancun with a 101.1.

The cities the were the cheapest to live were Tlaxcala - 64.4%; Tepic - 69.2%; Durango - 69.3%; Pachuca - 69.6% , and Chetumal - 69.9%. My guess is that most of my clients and readers haven’t heard of those cities nor visited but do let me know if you have. 

So are you surprised in Cabo making towards the top of the list? I would think if you have been to Cabo that it is not all too surprising. Centered on tourism and catering to the higher end tourist Cabo has made not only a name for itself as being one the, if not the best high end destination in Mexico, but also not a cheap place to vacation. Taking all that into account there are definite ways to save on your stays here like renting vacation villas (compared to hotels) and eating out at places away from the touristy areas. One great place to save 35% on your food, activities, and services here in Cabo is to visit the following website www.loscabosguide.com/discount.htm.  You can prepay for gift certificates and save big money when are down here eating out and booking your activities. I just recently bought $200 of gift certificates at Lorenzillos Lobster House on the marina and saved $70. It’s these little tricks that will help your pocketbook and make you enjoy Cabo that much more.

Back to the real estate front, let me know if buying in Cabo in the near future is a real possibility and I would love to discuss with you ways you can save on buying real estate here too. Imagine saving on your food and entertainment and REAL ESTATE – now that is a hat trick if I ever saw one.

 

Is the Violence in Mexico Reaching Cabo?

The answer to this question is a resounding "NO".  Cabo is safer than most places in Canada and the United States and a great place to visit not only for its natural beauty but also for the safety throughout.  I am sharing an article written by Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald below.  Please note that the reference to Baja California is referring to the Northern part of the peninsula which is a separate state than the Baja California Sur and 1,000 miles north.  The main city drawing the violence in Baja California is Tijuana which is next to San Diego.  Cabo is far from there and its violence. 

After the murder of two U.S. consulate workers in Mexico's border city of Ciudad Juárez, many of you have written to me wondering whether it is safe to travel to Mexico. The answer is: If you are courageous enough to travel to Washington, D.C., you can safely visit most parts of Mexico.

Despite the escalation of drug-related violence in several Mexican cities, and the pictures of mutilated bodies dumped on the streets of Ciudad Juárez and other cities along the U.S. border, a dispassionate look at Mexico's murder rates shows that some parts of the country are indeed dangerous, but the country as a whole is safer than what the latest headlines suggest.

NEW STUDY

A new study by Brookings Institute Latin American expert Kevin Casas-Zamora, a former vice president of Costa Rica, helps put Mexico's violence in perspective.

According to Casas-Zamora's figures, based on United Nations 2008 data, Mexico's murder rate is nearly five times less than that of sunny Jamaica and about half that of Brazil, a country that was recently awarded the much-coveted 2014 soccer World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.

Consider his data of Latin America's most violent countries: Honduras has a murder rate of 61 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by Jamaica with 60, Venezuela and El Salvador with 52 each, Guatemala with 47, Trinidad and Tobago with 40, Colombia with 39, Brazil with 22, Dominican Republic with 21, Panama with 19, Ecuador with 18, Nicaragua with 13, Paraguay with 12, Mexico and Costa Rica with about 11.5 each, Bolivia with 10.5 and Uruguay, Argentina, Peru, and Chile with less than 10.

Comparatively, while the United States homicide rate is lower than Mexico's, Washington, D.C., has a murder rate of 31 people per 100,000 inhabitants and New Orleans has 74.

``Violence in Mexico is concentrated in a few cities, mainly in Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Baja California,'' Casas Zamora told me in an interview. ``In Ciudad Juárez, it's out of control. But in the country as a whole, it doesn't come even close to Washington, D.C.'s.''

He conceded that Mexico's murder rates may have risen in recent months as a result of the cross fire between Mexican security forces and the drug cartels, and between the drug cartels themselves. But he added that they are still significantly below what they were 10 years ago.

Largely for demographic reasons -- Mexico's birth rates are dropping and large numbers of Mexicans have been migrating to the United States in recent decades -- murder rates in Mexico have been falling steadily for decades. They may have picked up only marginally over the past year, he said.

The U.S. State Department's latest travel alert to Mexico, issued following the killings of the two U.S. consular workers in Ciudad Juárez, says it has temporarily authorized the departure of relatives of U.S. consular workers in the Northern Mexican border cities of Tijuana, Nogales, Ciudad Juárez, Nuevo Laredo, Monterrey and Matamoros, and advises U.S. citizens ``to delay unnecessary travel to parts of Durango, Coahuila and Chihuahua states.''

As for Mexico as a whole, it says that ``U.S. citizen visitors are encouraged to stay in the well-known tourist areas.''

USE CAUTION

My opinion: Mexico is facing a dangerous rise in violence, and I would not advise you to spend your next vacation in Ciudad Juárez or any other place where the drug-related killings are taking place.

But Mexico is a huge country. To say that it's unsafe to travel to Mexico City, Puerto Vallarta or Cancún -- or that you wouldn't allow your children to spend spring break in that country, as Fox News' right-wing airhead Bill O'Reilly said last year -- is as irresponsible as saying that it's unsafe to travel to some of the biggest U.S. cities.

The State Department's travel alert, while correctly pointing out that the violence is concentrated in some Mexican states, should have put Mexico's national figures in perspective. It wouldn't be a bad idea if, from now on, it compared them with other countries' murder rates, and with that of its own home city -- Washington, D.C.

 

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